Mobile World Congress Predictions for Barcelona

Bish Bash Bosh in Mobile Barcelona

I'm going to be at the MWC 2008 in Barcelona next week, and I plan to cover it posting as often as possible along the way balancing my networking meetings, seminar attendance, dinners, and the usual crush of events that circulate around this global Uber conference.

With a new brand, Mobile World Congress, I remember leaving last year's 3GSM (as it used to be called), lacking any strong or prominent themes. Could be that's why the GSMA changed the title? Although, I think "Mobile World" hints of the old technology wars, and now with the GSMA running the event as a profit center, what could be next, "Galactic Mobile"?

Memories of 3GSMs Past

Some of my top line recollections from last year's 3GSM include:
1)No killer app emerging. There was some emerging buzz around mobile TV, but the standards wars continue in this technology, and the operators choice of a "broadcast solution" which could bring done a network is an odd strategy, which has not played out to their favor. 
2) IMS captured the most "new technology" buzz with the onset of some pilot projects, driven by a substantial amount of vendor hype. Alas, there's been only incremental movement regarding IMS with no real launches yet over the past 365 days.Some contracts have been let by the operators, but not high profile trials or major launch announcements. It is an inevitability though.
3) A substantial interest in applications providers, but no serious entries which have coalesced around a specific service which has punched through the general noise.
4) Search seemed to have a big crest before the show, but nothing significant emerged from the event.
5) Usual CSR -corporate social responsibility and how mobile can advance a company's social acceptability scale whether it was projects in Afghanistan, Africa or Latin America. CSR always seems to be on the periphery of these events.

Mobile World Congress 2008 Hot Topics?

Going into Barcelona's MWC 2008, I think the following will be the strong under currents to emerge from the show:

1) Mobile Advertising: Three commercial models have become prevalent in the Mobile world: transactions, subscription and advertising. With advertisers looking to get personalized as possible with their messages, it is only a matter of time before the metrics are resolved. In 3 short years the expectation is that this will be a $12 billion market
2)Africa is the next gold rush. The emerging market overall is getting more and more buzz heat, with Africa presenting greenfield opportunities to leap frog the developed world with new mobile networks. This will catalyze the service value chain whether it is basic SMS, mobile transactions such as remittance transfers, even advertising subsidizing low ARPU consumers to enable either messaging or voice services.
3)Mobile Transactions: This will be the year of the Mobile Payments breakout along the entire techno-value system.
4)Democratization of Applications, meaning Mobile User Generated Content
5)Mobile Social Networking Services
6)Mobile TV. It is getting traction in the US, but still has numerous challenges across all the regions of the globe. Scale is developing from interested participants, infrastructure providers, and users which is driving the interest.
7) LTE-Long Term Evolution. Ironic that even though no operator in the N. America has a 3G network, the constant drive for the next big thing is already driving LTE.
8) Security in Mobile, whether device or data centric. With increasing IP connectivity, the threat of being hacked is increasing as is attacks or exportation of unsecured data.
9) Cost savings, efficiencies. Notwithstanding the growth of the industry, with recessionary storm clouds brewing over the horizon due to the fact that the UK and US overwrought housing markets, the Chinese stock market bubble and currency issues, there's a chill coming, which translates not into new innovations but new ways of savings for operators and the entire value chain.

Mobile World Congress Cold Spots:
1) Mobile Gaming. Real gaming is still on line, and interactive mobile gaming hasn't yet hit the big time.
2) Mobile Search: Search leads to the ends of advertising, the means aren't really that important. Last year's focus on search will be shifting to this year's focus on advertising. Even the search driven companies are not transmogrifying into advertising companies.
3) Operator Interoperability: 06 lead the way to some consolidation with Sybase's acquisition of Mobile 365, but now there's more interest in what you do with a network as opposed to how you do it. Plus the growth of SMS continues, but little migration to may be what's next. Can you spell "Cash Cow"?
4) MVNOs: Name one that is successful, meaning making money. Well, alright TESCO in the UK. But who else and where else?

5) Mobile satelite. Enough said

Tune in starting Monday for more coverage including pod casts from Mobile Influencers, spontaneous stand ups, and other additions and analysis, plus pictures from the events, I hope to make over the course of a crushing three days.

WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SEE & HEAR ABOUT AT MWC?

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